As 2024 dawns, one drama that has captured the imagination of audiences in China is "Blooming Flowers." This series resonates deeply with those who have followed the tumultuous journeys of the Chinese stock market, allowing viewers to discover reflections of their own experiences in the character Ah Bao. The Shanghai Stock Exchange emerged officially in 1990, a time when the majority of the population was unfamiliar with the nuances of stock trading, with only a few seasoned veterans remaining in the midst of generational shifts. Over the course of the past three decades, while many investors have thrived, the memories of countless retail investors linger painfully in their minds.

The opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 19, 1990, marked a significant milestone in China's economic landscape. This was the nascent period for the Chinese financial market, coinciding with the early stages of foreign trade development. During that time, sectors like light industry and textiles dominated, earning foreign currency for the country. Initially, there were merely eight stocks listed, and public interest was minimal. A prevailing sentiment amongst many was that stocks represented a dangerous gamble, a "poisonous weed" reserved for the bourgeoisie.

Advertisement

While some individuals sought to invest, the constraints on trading limited their options, leaving them as mere spectators. However, the government, recognizing the stagnant state of the market, lifted restrictions two years later, allowing for unfettered trading and the removal of price limits on stocks. The immediate aftermath was explosive: the market soared, with the index skyrocketing by 105% in one day, and one particular stock surging by 470%. The catchphrase “Buy it, and you've already made profit” spread like wildfire amongst the citizens of Shanghai, awakening a dormant dream of wealth.

The floodgates opened, and the bustling Shanghai Stock Exchange became a cacophony of excitement, drawing hordes eager to buy shares despite their lack of understanding of the market. This era was characterized by minimal regulations, and the flow of information was sluggish, allowing savvy investors to gain an edge through insider knowledge—a stark contrast to today's vastly different landscape.

Currently, the A-share market presents a colossal entity that is challenging for any single entity to control, as most interventions can only affect smaller stocks. Information is now more readily available and flows quickly, yet discerning valuable insights remains complex for investors. Improved regulations have transformed the market, and the bold antics of yesteryears would be unthinkable for today’s investors.

People often juxtapose the Chinese stock market with that of the United States, examining it as a microcosm of broader U.S.-China relations. Observers frequently express envy at the longevity and prosperity of the U.S. stock market's bull runs, while simultaneously lamenting the volatility of the A-share market, yet they continue to invest. It is important to note that the U.S. market did not achieve its current dominance overnight; its history is replete with chaos, substantial highs, and devastating lows, having experienced more than six bear markets since the start of the 21st century alone. Major downturns followed the Internet bubble burst in 2000 and the mortgage crisis in 2008.

The evolution of the U.S. stock market reveals a turbulent past. Prior to 1950, it was often considered a gambler's arena marked by profuse volatility due to geopolitical unrest and a lack of sound financial structures. In the early 20th century, the U.S. emerged as a global power, its industries—railways, steel, electricity, and oil—thriving due to the efforts of countless investors. Fluctuation in wealth and power became evident in the wake of two World Wars, as the U.S. ascended through aggressive industrialization and robust manufacturing processes.

Post-World War II, the U.S. emerged nearly unchallenged in the capitalist world, spearheading technological advancements that bolstered its manufacturing domain. However, the 1970s oil crisis heralded a decline in U.S. manufacturing, overshadowed by the rise of Germany and Japan. In response, the U.S. pivoted towards a service-oriented economy during the late 20th century, triggering a remarkable bull market. This era was famously dubbed the "New Economy," where companies flourished, and the stock market saw record highs, with the likes of Warren Buffett acknowledging the company's success as fundamentally linked to the prosperous U.S. economy.

From 1992, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, until 2018, the U.S. displayed unshakeable global dominance across military, technological, and financial spheres, a period marked by rapid globalization and the emergence of major multinational corporations. This blind optimism led to the spectacular collapses seen in the early 2000s and 2008. Entering the 21st century, the American capital market has faced its fair share of challenges, including the bursting of the Internet bubble and the subsequent financial crisis.

In 2018, the United States initiated trade tensions with China, signaling the dawn of a new era characterized by competition and conflict. The stock market has since experienced three bear market phases, largely driven by leading technological giants steering the market upwards. This trend remains under development, and as time passes, the fate of American economic supremacy in the 21st century continues to hang in the balance.

The journey of the American stock market showcases a gradual evolution over more than two centuries, underscoring that substantial growth does not occur overnight. The A-share market, just over 30 years old, operates under different circumstances, especially in light of U.S.-China relations. Investors must remember that the refining of financial regulations and cultivating confidence in China’s financial landscape are processes that require time and patience.

Moreover, China's recent proposal for a distinct path in financial development underscores the essential differences between Western and Chinese financial models. This initiative emphasizes adhering to objective modern financial regulations, focusing on resource allocation for the benefit of productive sectors rather than exacerbating wealth inequality. In contrast to Western tendencies to utilize financial instruments to amplify wealth, China's approach aims to harness financial resources to benefit real economic activity, ensuring that financial markets support substantive production.

Returning to today’s market landscape, the tendency for capital to favor established entities, as reflected in the Thucydides Trap analogy, signifies a hesitance to back emerging challengers without visible proof of their potential. This phenomenon is especially salient in current market dynamics.

From an economic perspective, 2023 has undoubtedly showcased robust growth rates in China compared to Europe and the U.S. Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 17 highlighted a solid expected GDP growth of 5.2% for the year, translating into over 12 trillion yuan.

Ultimately, the world can often be irrational, and our task is to apply rational analyses to navigate these turbulent waters. By preparing adequately, we can position ourselves to reap above-average returns. To ensure the blooming of our metaphorical flowers, the metaphorically correct moment must be seized to plant the seeds for success.